Will a Technological Singularity take place during this century? (Poll Closed) (poll 3024663)

Nick Ernst - 14 years ago

I wouldn't answer "definitely" to any question where the answer wasn't provable mathematically, but I'm assigning a damned high probability to the event.

John Sullins - 14 years ago

Cultural backlash could pull us into a new dark age before the singularity becomes self sustaining

Michael Anissimov - 14 years ago

SIAI employee here, I said probably. "Growth patterns" don't promise a Singularity because 1) they could hit a wall dictated by the limits of human ability, and if people aren't aggressively trying to overcome human ability, those limits will remain, and 2) there could be a nuclear war or some other catastrophic event that prevents a Singularity.

I think it's better to think of the Singularity as a potential event -- the creation of superintelligence -- than as a general trend. The latter leads to fuzzy, mystical thinking, i.e., Terence McKenna.

Erik Aronesty - 14 years ago

Singularity is relative. From the perspective of someone living 100 years ago, we are already in a singularity. We already have one Internet, one United Nations, a global culture and a "global mindset" in ways hardly imaginable 100 years ago.

Aleksei Riikonen - 14 years ago

Ok, finding out about the above site and that they have a hundred members on Facebook, apparently there really are places to spot these "definitely" folks.

Now let's wait for the article by James Hughes or Mike Treder claiming that SIAI folks are the same as those folks.

Singularity 2045 - 14 years ago

Absolutely, definitely , indubitably, without doubt. The Singularity will happen by 2045 at the latest.

Help spread viral awareness... http://singularity-2045.org/

The Singularity is coming!

James Ledford - 14 years ago

We are probably in one in one now. Something like Nick Bostroms "Sim City "

Aleksei Riikonen - 14 years ago

Weird that the "definitely" option has gotten substantial support. Wouldn't have crossed my mind, even though I'm one of those typical SIAI supporters and Singularity enthusiasts that often (unfairly, IMO) get attacked on this site.

I answered "I'm not sure". If that option hadn't been available, I would have taken "probably". But really, it's a difficult estimation to make, and for the most part, it's not important to make it, since developing the capabilities to safely handle a Singularity scenario is very important regardless of whether the most likely time of it happening is very soon. (And since the soonish option can't be completely ruled out in any case.)